Wuwa EchoHow the Math Works

How rare are max crit rolls on a WuWa echo?

0.0115%, about 1 in 8,667 echoes. Crit. Rate 10.5% and Crit. DMG 21.0% on the same echo.

Chance per echo, +0 to +25
0.0115%
≈ 1 in 8,667 echoes

Chance per echo, +0 to +25

Crit roll table

Crit. Rate and Crit. DMG use the same weights (official disclosure).

The crit roll values, the chance of each, and the chance of that value or better.
Crit. RateCrit. DMGExactly thisThis or better
6.3%12.6%23.33%100.00%
6.9%13.8%23.33%76.67%
7.5%15.0%23.33%53.33%
8.1%16.2%8.00%30.00%
8.7%17.4%8.00%22.00%
9.3%18.6%8.00%14.00%
9.9%19.8%3.00%6.00%
10.5%21.0%3.00%3.00%

This or better: the chance that a crit substat rolls at least this value. A goal such as Crit. Rate ≥ 8.1% uses this column: 30.00%.

Both crits at or above a value

Both crits: 12.82%. Top rolls: × 3.00% × 3.00% = 0.0115%.

The odds of both crits at or above each roll value.
GoalChance per echoEchoes per hit
Crit. Rate and Crit. DMG, any roll12.82%1 in 7.80
Crit. Rate ≥ 8.1% and Crit. DMG ≥ 16.2%1.15%1 in 87
Crit. Rate ≥ 9.3% and Crit. DMG ≥ 18.6%0.251%1 in 398
Crit. Rate ≥ 10.5% and Crit. DMG ≥ 21.0%0.0115%1 in 8,667

Echoes needed

How many echoes the goal takes.
Echoes
Average8,667
Half of players6,007 or fewer
9 in 10 players19,955 or fewer

Each echo is a new roll. Misses do not raise the odds of the next echo.

Cost

Averages for the whole goal, after discard refunds (75% of EXP, 30% of Tuners).

The expected cost of Crit. Rate ≥ 10.5% and Crit. DMG ≥ 21.0%, for each route.
RouteEchoesTunersPremium TubesTransducers
Max every echo8,667303,34861,988—
Tune & scrap (strict)86,666723,34734,549—
One echo + Data Modify15028.6143

Max every echo: tune every echo to +25, keep the first hit.

Tune & scrap (strict): scrap at the first tune that misses a goal stat.

Data Modify: reroll one +25 echo until it hits.

In Waveplates and money

The Tacet Field runs, days of Waveplates, and money value of Crit. Rate ≥ 10.5% and Crit. DMG ≥ 21.0%, for each route.
RouteTacet runsDaysMoney value
Max every echo15,1673,792$11,262
Tune & scrap (strict)36,1679,042$26,854
One echo + Data Modify5.91.5$1,067–$2,129

1 Tacet Field run (60 Waveplates): about 24,155 Echo EXP (4.8 Premium Tubes) and 20 Premium Tuners. 240 Waveplates per day.

One run drops tubes and Tuners together, so the scarcer one sets the runs. Echo drops are not counted.

Money: a 60-Waveplate refill costs 60 Astrite (the first 2 each day). 1 pull = 160 Astrite. At the $99.99 Lunite pack, 1 Astrite ≈ $0.0124, 60 Waveplates ≈ $0.74, and 1 pull ≈ $1.98.

Other ways to buy Waveplates: Sage's Solvent Aid, $4.99 for 7 Crystal Solvent, is $0.71 per 60 when the shop offers it. The Lunite Subscription, $4.99 for 3,000 Astrite, is $0.10 per 60, for up to 3,000 Astrite a month.

Shops: a Premium Sealed Tube also sells for 250 Monnaie (Averardo Bank) or 50 Data Sets (Simulation Training Store, 25 max).

Drop data: community drop sheet, 1,697 Tacet Field runs at SOL3 Phase 8, versions 2.0–2.5.